My prediction about 5th phase (only Bundelkhand): Who is wining! where?

Jhansi- 

Ravi Sharma (BJP) 2^nd position: Sitaram Kushwaha(BSP)

Why: Unite of BJP’s traditional voters includes Pundit-Baniya-Rajput, Lodhs, & this time MBCs(Kushwaha/Shakyas/Kurmis/Maurayas/Sainis) are in BJP’s favor. Ravi Sharma is well known Hindutva Face in Jhansi.

Charkhari- 

Uma Bharati(BJP) 2^nd position: Duram Chaudhary(BSP)

Why:  Charkhari is work-land of Uma Bharati since long, She is from Lodh Rajput community which represent 65% population of constituency+ BJP’s traditional voters.

Mahoba: 

Badshah Singh(BJP)

Why: Ex-minister in Maya Govt., Senior leader of BSP. Strong hold on local politics, Once BSP’s star campaigner in Bundelkhand when BSP won 19 Seat alone.

Rath(SC): 

Ram Sahay(BSP) 2^nd position: Anil Ahirwar(BJP)

Why: Core SC populated area where Ram Sahay is well known face compare to BJP’s Anil or Congress’ Gayadin. I think he will win comfortably.

Hamirpur: Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti (BJP) 2^nd position Keshav Babu Shivhare(Congress)

Why: Tough fight between BJP & Congress here, SP’s Prajapati making it more interesting. But wave is in favor of Sadhvi because of her religious aura & internal support from Uma Bharati. Hamirpur was once congress’s strong hold. Then transferred to BSP. Sadhvi will make it possible with BJP this time.

Mahroni(SC): Ramesh Khatik(Congress) 2^nd position Feran Lal Ahirwar(BSP)

Though all parties did hard work but Ramesh Khatik leading all the way because of his caste factor and his availability to locals.

Lalitpur: 50-50 either Congress’s Virendra Bundela or BJP’s Ram Ratan Kushwaha

Why: Interestingly, BSP also given ticket to Kushwaha candidate & SP given ticket to Bundela Candidate, Caste wise Bundela(Kshatriya) & Kushwahas are in equal numbers, Now here Dalit will vote to BSP for sure. Upper caste is in divide status. In general, they are BJP voters but upper class candidates from Cong & SP can attract them. All depends on the Upper castes.

Garuantha:  Tikaram Patel (BJP) 2^nd position Ranjit Singh Judev

Why: Migrated Ranjit Singh Judev 11^th time is in a fight, he lost last 3 elections and this time again he is going to back to home, Caste factors are in favor of BJP.  

Orai: Gauri Shankar Verma(BJP) 2^nd position BSP’s Satyendra Ahirwar.

Why: Old patron of BJP and many time MLA Verma will get time, Fight for Ahirwar votes between BSP & Congress will benefit to BJP. This area is dominated by Kurmis, Kushwahas & Chamars.

Kalpi: Swatantra Dev Singh(BJP) 2^nd position BSP’ Sanjay Bhadouria.

Why: I was betting on Sanjay Bhadouria or JD(U)’s Mehrotra but BJP’s massive & densed campaign make me curious about this seat. Here, JD(U) challenged BJP though Mehrotra is rebel & senior leader of BJP.

Madhogarh: Santram Sengar(BJP) 2^nd position Vinod Chaturvedi(Cong)

Why: Santram is many time MLA from here, BJP given this seat to JD(U) 2 times by cutting sitting MLA Santram’a ticket but JD(U)’s state president Niranjan Kumar lost every time. Let me also tell you on this seat only BJP’s alliance with JD(U) broken down.

Mauranipur (SC)-  BSP

Babina- BSP

Ghatampur (SC)- SP

Auraiya (SC)- BJP

Dibiyapur- SP

Total- 16 seats

BJP- 9

BSP-  3

SP-2

Cong- 2(including Lalitpur’s seat)